Dave Kranzler – With Gold At All-Time Highs Again, Then Why Aren’t Gold Stocks Performing Better?
Dave Kranzler, Fund Manager and Publisher of the Mining Stock Journal and the Short Seller’s Journal, joins me for a discussion on the all-time high made in gold today, the disconnect we are still seeing in the response from the gold stocks at these record metals prices, and parsing through opportunities in perceived jurisdictional risk.
We start off looking at some of the macroeconomic factors like inflation, the Fed’s increase in M2 overall despite it coming down year over year, the reverse repo market still creating more liquidity in money supply, and the upcoming rate cuts. Another big factor has been central banks in the East underpinning a continuous bid for both gold and silver. With regards to the gold mining stocks, he feels that there has been a loss in trust from generalist investors in these companies ability to maintain upside growth, after a series of corrections have followed each rally higher, but that this may be starting to change. He also notes the investor herd behavior piling into tech stocks like Nvidia and meme stocks that has most generalist chasing those themes and not even looking as the resource sector.
Wrapping up we get into a nuanced discussion around perceived jurisdiction risk, and conversely perceived jurisdiction safety, and how often there is more opportunity for upside surprises, faster permitting, and larger resources in some of the jurisdictions commonly thought of us risky. Dave outlines how he has done well the last couple of years positioning in Fortuna Silver (TSX: FVI) (NYSE: FSM), Calibre Mines (TSX: CXB) (OTCQX: CXBMF), and Silvercorp Metals (TSX: SVM) (NYSE: SVM) when he did more due diligence into the perceived risks many market participants have about West Africa, Nicaragua, and China respectively, but found them to be overblown. In contrast, many jurisdictions in the US and Canada are much slower to get projects permitted and developed, and still have community pushback and social license issues.
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Dave Kranzler was spot on about how so many retail investors overly discount jurisdictional risk or completely ignore and then miss out on quality companies like Fortuna Silver, Calbrie Mining, and Silvercorp Metals.
>> For example he mentioned the huge market over-reaction in Calibre Mining to the late October 2022 US sanctioning of Nicaragua (which actually had nothing to do with a Canadian company operating in-country). That fishing line selloff, where so many investors exited at exactly the wrong time, was actually the spot to be buying into the F.U.D. (Fear, Uncertainty, & Doubt), as (CXB) bottomed at $.052, and closed today up 400% at $2.20.
>> Calibre has been a 4-bagger since the perceived jurisdiction risk got so extreme, that the company was simply at a ridiculous valuation for their annual production levels, development projects, resources in the ground, and on-going string of exploration successes.
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1j9epan-Calibre%20Mining%20daily%20chart.JPG
Then with Silvercorp Metals (SVM) there are so many investors spooked [and that tell ghost stories] about them being a Canadian company with operating mines in China, and the stake in a handful of development projects in South America.
>> If investors were to have bought or averaged down into the last 2 oversold corrective moves, they’ve have had 2 different opportunities to see the shares do a double 200% gain:
– From the PM stock sector bottom in late September 2022 at $1.99- through the banking crisis high of April 2023 at $4.20, and again from the November 2023 low of $2.08 or even the more recent February 2024 low at $2.22 to the recent May 2024 peak at $4.39.
SVM just recently pulled back to $3.27 and has started bouncing again…
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1j9eqa8-Silvercorp%202%20year%20daily%20chart.JPG
(TSX: CXB) (OTCQX: CXBMF) Calibre to Commence an Expanded 100,000 Metre Resource Expansion and Discovery Drill Program Across its Flagship Valentine Gold Mine Property
July 15, 2024
https://www.calibremining.com/news/calibre-to-commence-an-expanded-100-000-metre-reso-9119/